Introduction to the Application of Probability to Systems Engineering and Design

Level: Introductory Length: 4 hours Format: In-Person Lecture Intended Audience: Scientists, engineers, technicians, or managers who wish to learn more about how to apply probability to engineering problems. Undergraduate training in engineering or science is assumed. Description: This probabilistic methodology of performance budgeting should be a tool in every engineer’s tool kit as it is fundamental to understanding how system design impacts the probability of successful. This course explains basic principles for the use of probability analysis applied to systems engineering problems. Specific attention is given to the central problem of performance budgeting. A primary goal of the course is explaining the logic, construction and application of performance and error budgeting. Examples are taken from various problems in systems engineering of astronomical and laser systems. This course will be of benefit to anyone who wants to answer the question, “what are the chances of success of my project?” and “how can I change the design maximize the probability of success?”, “how do I allocate tolerances?”, “how do I explain the uncertainties in performance?” Learning Outcomes: This course will enable you to: - compose a performance or error budget - calculate the distribution of likely outcomes of a design process - calculate the most likely value for the performance of a component or system - identify the sensitivity of performance to all parameters in the system - explain the probability of the success of design project Instructor(s): Jonathan W. Arenberg is Chief Mission Architect for Science and Robotic Exploration at Northrop Grumman. He is responsible for mission design, formulation, and relevant technology development for all areas of space science. Dr. Arenberg has worked on the Chandra X-ray Observatory, James Webb Space Telescope and co-invented the Starshade concept for the imaging of extra-solar planets. He has also worked on major high-energy and tactical laser systems, laser component engineering and metrology issues. Currently, his research includes the optimization of the manufacturing process for x-ray optics, a concept for a terahertz observatory with a large inflatable primary reflector and alternate architectures for NASA’s Next Great Observatories. He is the author of over 250 conference presentations and refereed publications and co-author of a recent SPIE book on systems engineering. He holds 2 European and 13 U.S. Patents. Dr. Arenberg is an SPIE visiting lecturer and Fellow, and an Associate Fellow of the AIAA. Event: SPIE Astronomical Telescopes + Instrumentation 2024 Course Held: 17 June 2024