Introduction to Applied Probability for Systems Engineers

Level: Introductory Length: 4 hours Format: In-Person Lecture Intended Audience: Scientists, engineers, technicians, or managers who wish to learn more about how to apply probability to engineering problems. Undergraduate training in engineering or science is assumed. Description: This course explains basic principles for the use of probability analysis as applied to systems engineering and applies them to the central problem of performance budgeting. A primary goal of the course is explaining the logic, construction and application of performance and error budgeting. This probabilistic methodology of performance budgeting should be a tool in every engineer’s tool kit as it is fundamental to understanding the probability of a successful system. Examples are taken from various problems in systems engineering of astronomical and laser systems. This course will be of benefit to anyone who wants to answer the question, “what are the chances of success of my project?” and “how can I maximize the probability of success?” Learning Outcomes: This course will enable you to: - compose a performance or error budget - calculate the distribution of likely outcomes of a design process - calculate the most likely value for the performance of a component or system - identify the sensitivity of performance to all parameters in the system - explain the probability of the success of design project Instructor(s): Jonathan W. Arenberg has been working as an optical and systems engineer for over 35 years. His work experience includes tactical and high-power laser components and systems and major space astronomical projects such as Chandra and the James Webb Space Telescope and numerous technology efforts. He holds degrees in physics and engineering from the University of California, Los Angeles and currently the Chief Engineer for Space Science Missions at Northrop Grumman Aerospace Systems. Dr. Arenberg is the co-author of a recent SPIE Press book on systems engineering and an SPIE Fellow. Event: SPIE Optics + Photonics 2023 Course Held: 21 August 2023