Introduction to Applied Probability for Systems Engineers in Astronomy

Level: Introductory Length: 4 hours Format: In-Person Lecture Intended Audience: Scientists, engineers, technicians, or managers who wish to learn more about how to apply probability to engineering problems. Undergraduate training in engineering or science is assumed. Description: This course introduces the basic principles of probability applied to systems engineering in astronomical systems. The emphasis in this short course is on the central problem of performance budgeting. A primary goal of the course is explaining the logic, construction and application of performance and error budgeting. The first portion of the course introduces the necessary fundamental concepts and theory. The latter portion concentrate on examples taken from various problems in systems engineering of astronomical systems. Examples include statistical and “not to exceed” budgets typically seen in practice. This course will be of benefit to anyone who wants to answer the questions, “what are the chances of success of my project?”, “what factors are affecting the risk the performance of my project?” and “how can I maximize the probability of success?” Learning Outcomes: This course will enable you to: - compose a performance or error budget - identify if the budget is statistical in nature or “not to exceed” - calculate the distribution of likely outcomes of a design process - identify the sensitivity of performance to all parameters in the system - explain the probability of the success of design project Instructor(s): Jonathan W. Arenberg has been working as an optical and systems engineer for over 35 years. His work experience includes tactical and high-power laser components and systems and major space astronomical projects such as Chandra and the James Webb Space Telescope and numerous technology efforts. He holds degrees in physics and engineering from the University of California, Los Angeles and currently the Chief Engineer for Space Science Missions at Northrop Grumman Aerospace Systems. Dr. Arenberg is the co-author of a recent SPIE Press book on systems engineering and an SPIE Fellow. Event: SPIE Astronomical Telescopes + Instrumentation 2018 Course Held: 10 June 2018